长江三角洲夏季持续性高温预报方法的研究     

李扬  郭品文 《气象研究与应用》2011,32(2):5-9,115,116

采用1999～2008年逐日最高气温观测资料和NCEP逐日再分析资料,统计分析了长江三角洲地区近10a夏季温度的低频周期,揭示了对该地区夏季温度变化产生影响的区域和特征。研究表明,该地区夏季温度的低频周期为10-30d。通过相关分析在42．50～47．5°N、82．5°～90°E,42．5°～47．5°N、80°～90...  相似文献   

Strategies to Overcome Filter Divergence in the DRP-4-DVar Approach          下载免费PDF全文

LIU Juan-Juan  WANG Bin 《大气和海洋科学快报》2011,4(3):136-138

This paper discusses an important issue related to filter divergence in the dimension-reduced projection,four-dimensional variational data assimilation(DRP-4-DVar) approach.Idealized experiments with the Lorenz-96 model over a period of 200 days showed that the amplitudes of the root mean square errors(RMSEs) reached the same levels as those of the state variables after approximately 100 days because of the accumulation of sampling errors following the cycle of assimilation.Strategies to reduce sampling errors are critical to ensure the quality of ensemble-based assimilation.Numerical experiments showed that localization and reducing observational errors can alleviate,but cannot completely overcome,the filter divergence in the DRP-4-DVar approach,while the method of perturbing observations and the inflation technique can efficiently eliminate the filter divergence problem.  相似文献   

速度传感反馈地震计的参数稳定性分析     

杨晓源  邵玉平  杜瑶 《地震地磁观测与研究》2011,32(6):109-115

从理论上定量分析机械摆和环路滤波等开环诸参数变化对速度传感反馈地震计闭环参数的影响.研究指出,在环路设计中可半自由选取的开环阻尼取值对参数稳定性有重要影响.过大或过小的开环阻尼取值均可能造成参数稳定性急剧变差,影响地震计在只标不调的状况下长期连续稳定工作.  相似文献   

高分辨率SAR影像斑点噪声滤除方法的研究   总被引：9，自引：6，他引：3  

王志勇  张继贤  黄国满 《测绘科学》2004,29(6):41-44

SAR影像中一般都存在着斑点噪声,它严重干扰了地物信息的提取与SAR影像的应用,影响了地物的判读,因此,抑制SAR影像斑点噪声对SAR影像的应用有着重要意义。本文首先分析了斑点噪声的产生机理及数学模型,然后介绍了滤除斑点噪声的方法,重点介绍了几种局域统计自适应滤波,总结了SAR斑点噪声滤除的两种数学模型作为构造SAR斑点噪声滤除方法的基础,然后针对几种典型的滤波算法进行了对比试验,最后提出了一套对这些滤波斑点噪声滤除效果的定量化评价指标,并运用到试验中,指导SAR影像斑点噪声的滤除以及滤波算法的构造。  相似文献   

InSAR干涉条纹图去噪方法的研究   总被引：7，自引：0，他引：7  

王志勇  张继贤  黄国满 《测绘科学》2004,29(6):31-33

分析了干涉条纹图中相位噪声的来源,介绍了几种专门用于InSAR干涉条纹图噪声滤除的方法,针对干涉条纹图的相位跳跃现象,提出了正余弦变换的方法解决相位跳跃的问题,并在此基础上提出了两种新的相位噪声滤除方法———正余弦均值滤波法和正余弦中值滤波法,最后进行了对比试验,证明了本文提出的方法具有噪声抑制效果好、边缘信息保持能力强、算法简单的特点。  相似文献   

用一种新滤波函数进行CT图像的局部重建     

徐茂林  邱钧  范惠荣  张兆田  李兴东 《CT理论与应用研究》2004,13(1):54-58

本文阐述了用一种新型滤波函数进行CT图象局部重建的原理,并给出了这种重建的二次误差估计.本文选用一种新的滤波函数,它的旁瓣衰减很快,经证明在可能选取的滤波函数中,它的衰减是最快的.新滤波函数由于空域的迅速衰减性,因此具有良好的局部重建性质.同时保持该滤波函数的其它特性,能够有效地抑制噪声,补偿混迭效应,并缓解Gibbs效应.应用新滤波函数,忽略远离计算点的数据,从而直接用CBP实现图像局部重建.在计算机上对模拟和实测数据进行局部重建的实验结果表明本文建议的图像局部重建算法简便快速,重建图象Gibbs效应减小并与用全部数据的CBP重建图像比较仍具有较高的空间及密度分辨率.  相似文献   

卡尔曼滤波在滑坡监测中的应用   总被引：8，自引：0，他引：8  

梅连友 《测绘工程》2004,13(3):13-15

针对滑波变形的特点,将滑坡体上的监测点视为一运动点场,提出一种以运动方程为核心、以卡尔曼滤波技术为工具的变形观测数据处理方法,使滑坡的预报成为可能.  相似文献   

Ensemble data assimilation in a simple coupled climate model: The role of ocean-atmosphere interaction     

刘征宇  武术  张绍晴  刘赟  容新尧 《大气科学进展》2013,30(5):1235-1248

A conceptual coupled ocean-atmosphere model was used to study coupled ensemble data assimilation schemes with a focus on the role of ocean-atmosphere interaction in the assimilation. The optimal scheme was the fully coupled data assimilation scheme that employs the coupled covariance matrix and assimilates observations in both the atmosphere and ocean. The assimilation of synoptic atmospheric variability that captures the temporal fluctuation of the weather noise was found to be critical for the estimation of not only the atmospheric, but also oceanic states. The synoptic atmosphere observation was especially important in the mid-latitude system, where oceanic variability is driven by weather noise. The assimilation of synoptic atmospheric variability in the coupled model improved the atmospheric variability in the analysis and the subsequent forecasts, reducing error in the surface forcing and, in turn, in the ocean state. Atmospheric observation was able to further improve the oceanic state estimation directly through the coupled covariance between the atmosphere and ocean states. Relative to the mid-latitude system, the tropical system was influenced more by ocean-atmosphere interaction and, thus, the assimilation of oceanic observation becomes more important for the estimation of the ocean and atmosphere.  相似文献   

Effect of doubling the ensemble size on the performance of ensemble prediction in the warm season using MOGREPS implemented at the KMA     

Jun Kyung KAY  Hyun Mee KIM  Young-Youn PARK  Joohyung SON 《大气科学进展》2013,30(5):1287-1302

Using the Met Office Global and Regional Ensemble Prediction System (MOGREPS) implemented at the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA), the effect of doubling the ensemble size on the performance of ensemble prediction in the warm season was evaluated. Because a finite ensemble size causes sampling error in the full forecast probability distribution function (PDF), ensemble size is closely related to the efficiency of the ensemble prediction system. Prediction capability according to doubling the ensemble size was evaluated by increasing the number of ensembles from 24 to 48 in MOGREPS implemented at the KMA. The initial analysis perturbations generated by the Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (ETKF) were integrated for 10 days from 22 May to 23 June 2009. Several statistical verification scores were used to measure the accuracy, reliability, and resolution of ensemble probabilistic forecasts for 24 and 48 ensemble member forecasts. Even though the results were not significant, the accuracy of ensemble prediction improved slightly as ensemble size increased, especially for longer forecast times in the Northern Hemisphere. While increasing the number of ensemble members resulted in a slight improvement in resolution as forecast time increased, inconsistent results were obtained for the scores assessing the reliability of ensemble prediction. The overall performance of ensemble prediction in terms of accuracy, resolution, and reliability increased slightly with ensemble size, especially for longer forecast times.  相似文献   

Assimilating Best Track Minimum Sea Level Pressure Data Together with Doppler Radar Data Using an Ensemble Kalman Filter for Hurricane Ike (2008) at a Cloud-Resolving Resolution          下载免费PDF全文

XUE Ming  DONG Jili 《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》2013,27(3):379-399

Extending an earlier study, the best track minimum sea level pressure (MSLP) data are assimilated for landfalling Hurricane Ike (2008) using an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF), in addition to data from two coastal ground-based Doppler radars, at a 4-km grid spacing. Treated as a sea level pressure observation, the MSLP assimilation by the EnKF enhances the hurricane warm core structure and results in a stronger and deeper analyzed vortex than that in the GFS (Global Forecast System) analysis; it also improves the subsequent 18-h hurricane intensity and track forecasts. With a 2-h total assimilation window length, the assimilation of MSLP data interpolated to 10-min intervals results in more balanced analyses with smaller subsequent forecast error growth and better intensity and track forecasts than when the data are assimilated every 60 minutes. Radar data are always assimilated at 10-min intervals. For both intensity and track forecasts, assimilating MSLP only outperforms assimilating radar reflectivity (Z) only. For intensity forecast, assimilating MSLP at 10-min intervals outperforms radar radial wind (Vr) data (assimilated at 10-min intervals), but assimilating MSLP at 60-min intervals fails to beat Vr data. For track forecast, MSLP assimilation has a slightly (noticeably) larger positive impact than Vr(Z) data. When Vr or Z is combined with MSLP, both intensity and track forecasts are improved more than the assimilation of individual observation type. When the total assimilation window length is reduced to 1h or less, the assimilation of MSLP alone even at 10-min intervals produces poorer 18-h intensity forecasts than assimilating Vr only, indicating that many assimilation cycles are needed to establish balanced analyses when MSLP data alone are assimilated; this is due to the very limited pieces of information that MSLP data provide.  相似文献